Why can the PTMEG price remain firm as BDO price experiences correction?
2021-04-08    [Source:PUdaily]
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PUdaily,Sahnghai--

Following their price increase, many products began to witness corrections recently. 一波涨价潮过去,大家能看到最近很多产品价格在回落,Among them, BDO saw its price decline from RMB 31,000/ton to the current RMB 28,000/ton. BDO从高峰31000/吨左右的价格回落到现在28000/吨左右。The correction in BDO price is a result of increased supply and decreased demand. On the supply side, as some manufacturers restart their plants the supply increases. BDO的价格回调,从供应端来看,部分厂商装置重启,供应量增加。Besides, Shaanxi Yanchang Petroleum’s auction price continues to fall and transactions are modest. Most manufacturers actively sell goods. 而且延长石油的竞拍价一直下跌,成交情况一般,供方利空因素较多,多数厂商持出货心态。On the demand side, some downstream manufacturers began to perform maintenance, resulting in decreased demand. 从需求端来看,部分下游主力厂商开始检修,需求量减少。Thus, bearish sentiments are rampant among market players and trading is thin. 供增需减的情况下,市场看空气氛浓郁,厂商操盘意向不强,下游补仓消极,交投清淡。


 

Fig. 1 Average BDO price in East China in 2020-2021 1 2020-2021年华东地区BDO均价走势

Despite the continuous decrease in BDO price, the price of PTMEG still remains high. 但在原料BDO的持续回调的情况下,其下游PTMEG的价格依然高位,市场依然在坚挺运行。Particularly, the prevailing prices of PTMEG 1800 for spandex are discussed at RMB 38,000-42,000/ton. 尤其是氨纶领域的1800分子量PTMEG价格高居不下,主流商谈价格维持在38000-42000/吨。The prevailing prices of PTMEG 1000 for non-spandex products are discussed at RMB 40,000-44,000/ton. 非氨纶领域的1000分子量主流商谈价参考40000-44000/吨。The prevailing quotes for PTMEG 2000 stand at RMB 39,000-42,000/ton DEL in drum. 2000分子量主流桶装送到价参考39000-42000/吨。


 

Fig. 1 1 Average price of PTMEG 1800 in East China in 2020 and 2021 2020-2021年华东地区1800分子量PTMEG均价走势

According to PUdaily, the reasons are as follows. 对此,天天化工网有分析。The high operating rate of downstream spandex plants and therefore their relatively strong demand for PTMEG lend support to PTMEG manufacturers’ high quotes. PTMEG下游氨纶维持高位开工,按需入市补仓,支撑PTMEG工厂高位报盘

Moreover, as the pandemic in foreign countries is brought under control in 2021, spandex exports were strong in January and February. 出口方面,2021年以来随着疫情好转,国内外经济形势有所好转,在成本支撑和国内外需求转好的情况下,氨纶1-2月份出口形势大好。According to customs data, China exported 15,200 tons of spandex for the January-February period, up 34.27% year on year. 据海关数据显示,20211-2月份我国氨纶累计出口量为1.52万吨,相比20201-2月份氨纶出口同比增加34.27%The increase in spandex exports in turn drives up the demand for PTMEG. 因此对PTMEG的需求有拉涨作用。

On the supply side, fraught with bearish sentiments, the BDO market experienced correction recently.  Despite that, the high BDO price is still unacceptable to PTMEG manufacturers. They make limited purchase and therefore have to cut production loads, which leads to tight supply of PTMEG. 供应端方面,近期PTMEG上游BDO市场看空气氛浓郁,持续回调。PTMEG氨纶领域高位开工,PTMEG非氨纶领域工厂成本存在压力,厂家有挺价意向。

On the demand side, in April downstream manufacturers’ demand for textiles become weak, mainly consuming existing inventories. 需求端方面,进入到4月份,下游纺织需求转淡,以消耗库存为主,As epidemic has been brought under control, orders from overseas markets increase. 随着疫情控制情况下,外贸订单增加。Spandex is used not only in traditional textiles and apparel, but also in medical articles such as masks, medical bandages and gauze. And spandex demand from these areas are also high. 氨纶除了应用到传统纺织服装中,也是口罩、医用绷带、纱布等医用物品的原料之一,且需求量持续高位。

In the long run, with the increase in production capacity for PTMEG, the price of PTMEG will fall. 但是长期来看,随着PTMEG的产能增加,PTMEG价格会有所回落,Besides, the high prices will meet resistance from downstream manufacturers. 如果长期持续高位,下游支撑不住,则会影响整个产业链。Only moderate price can ensure sustainable and sound development of the supply chain.

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